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Whether you are a seasoned trader or a novice, with the assistance and adaptables of Blink Trades you will always have the right balance between simplicity and sophistication. Blink Trades is committed to ensuring that people can invest and trade, with confidence, in an innovative and trustworthy environment that is backed by the best of personal assistance with unquestionable integrity. For more information visit our website.

Welcome to Blink December is normally a weak month for the dollar. January and February are typically much better months. Thus for dollar bulls like ourselves, December is proving a month of damage limitation Dollar price action is still soft Any whiff of softer price data – e.g. yesterday’s downward revision to US 3Q unit labour cost data – sees the dollar easily slip. Dollar gains remain hard to come by. Beyond today’s US initial claims (remaining remarkably low in the 220-240,000 region) will be November PPI data tomorrow (core expected to fall to 5.9% year-on-year from 6.7%) and then an incredibly busy week into Tuesday’s CPI release and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Preventing an even large dollar correction this month is the fact that Fed expectations have not yet crumbled. The terminal rate is still priced above 4.90% for next spring and this is just about keeping US two-year Treasury yields above the 4.25% area. Short-end yields holding up here and the ongoing inversion of the US curve is key to our call that the dollar can hold gains/bounce back into 1Q23. Clearly, next week’s FOMC meeting will have a big say here – we will publish our FOMC preview shortly. DXY looks like it will continue to trade on a soft footing near 105.00, but should meet demand below there. ECB focus moves onto QT EUR/USD remains reasonably supported near 1.05 – helped largely by the dollar’s soft performance across the board. We may be reading too much into it, but the pricing through the OIS market for next week’s European Central Bank rate meeting yesterday edged up to a 67bp hike from 54bp a day earlier. The move may be a function of some more hawkish remarks from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and seems to be putting the risk of a 75bp hike back on the agenda. Our house call is for 50bp. “Our base case view assumes that this EUR/USD corrective rally stalls in the 1.05/1.06 area this month. The bigger risk of a rally probably comes more from a less hawkish Fed than a more hawkish ECB. Equally, we do see European gas prices edging higher again as a cold snap hits northern Europe. TTF natural gas prices are now back up to EUR150/MWH from 100 earlier this month,” ING analysts said. “This will again pressure the trade balance and higher gas prices are one of the key reasons we are not more bullish on EUR/USD next year. Expect another narrow EUR/USD range today centered around 1.05. The data calendar is quite light and ECB speakers are President Christine Lagarde at 1300CET, Pablo De Cos at 1315CET and Francois Villeroy at 17CET – all seen on the dovish end of the spectrum.” What’s moving market today Elsewhere, we have the Swiss National Bank’s Andrea Maechler speaking at 1530CET. In addition to Fed, ECB and Bank of England rate meetings next week we also have the quarterly SNB policy decision. It looks like market pricing is split between a 25bp and 50bp hike (taking rates to 0.75-1.00%). Let’s see what she has to say today. EUR/CHF has been a bit stronger than we had expected, but assuming the SNB stays hawkish, we continue to see downside risks here.

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The Eurozone services PMI edged down to 48.6 points, S&P Global data showed on Friday, whereas the composite fell more – to 47.3 – dragged down by gloomy manufacturing. While Italy’s services PMI also declined to 46.4, leaving the composite down to 45.8. In Spain the services PMI rose to 49.7, but the composite fell to 48. Today’s Eurozone data were slightly better-than-expected, as German and French PMIs were revised up from the flash. But this does not make the outlook rosier. GDP doesn’t limit worries on the Eurozone economy Indeed, while GDP surprised to the upside in Q3, high-frequency data suggest that the eurozone is headed for a recession this winter. Amid elevated inflation denting purchasing power and high energy and production costs dampening manufacturing. Italy among the worst in the euro area In Italy, service firms lamented lower orders and demand due to high prices and uncertainty. As a result, expectations were at a nearly two-year low. While higher costs were passed on to clients, the ability to do so was limited by the weakness of demand and by competitive pressures. Despite the improvement in the headline number, the details of the Spanish services survey are not encouraging either; future prospects remain gloomy, amid high uncertainty and price pressures. If Italy cries, Germany and France don’t smile… In September, French industrial production fell, with a widespread decline across categories. While German industrial orders dropped, but real turnover edged up, suggesting that easing bottlenecks and large backlogs will soften the immediate impact on output from lower orders. https://blinktrades.com/final-pmis-confirm-eurozone-growth-is-losing-steam/

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Why you should start your trading journey Online trading platform UK means buying and selling financial securities via computer or smart phone. The goal of those who do online trading is to earn on the price difference between purchase and sale. But it’s a risky business in the sense that you can lose money. In this guide, we will give a brief overview of how to start trading online and how to try to earn. It is a guide for beginners but also for those who want to deepen. Why is it important to study? In order to deal with online trading profitably, you need to study, to understand how the financial markets work and to define your own action plan. And you need to know how to manage the emotion that fluctuations in stock prices can easily generate. The psychological aspect The psychological aspect of online trading is very important. So much so that a good operation is never defined in absolute terms but must always be adapted to the person who implements it. For some, for example, very frequent operations over a short time horizon may be suitable. For others, it may be better to operate less and take a longer-term perspective. Why trade online? Online trading is an inexpensive way to invest your money in the stock and ForEx market. The commissions are low and, in addition, you have access to real-time quotes and charts, technical and fundamental analysis of financial assets and much more. These are things that the investor needs to make the right investment choices at the right time. With online trading, you have everything in view instantly and in real time. We start with the premarket, the opening, closing, and even the afterhours for shares. Most investors use the trading online to invest in stocks. Then you have access to the listing of investment funds, government bonds, CWs, etc. The working hours for investing in shares can be compared to that of a common job. Opening at 09.00 and closing at 17.30, excluding the auction market. In addition, with the afterhours, you may also work overtime. Who is online trading suitable for? Online trading is suitable for those who want to invest their money on their own. But to take advantage of the independence that the trading online makes possible, you have to work hard: that is, study, apply your strategy and resist market pressure. The financial markets are, in fact, very complex and above all unpredictable places. This is why you need to study a lot and above all continue to do so to define and adapt your operations to possible changes in the scenario. The fickleness of the markets also tests the character of the trader. It’s not easy to maintain an operational program when the market says otherwise, i.e. when quotations go down instead of up. For this reason, you need the right character not to get overwhelmed by emotion and the expertise to understand when it is really necessary to change approach. How to start trading online? After opening an account with an online broker, downloading the platform or logging into it and learning how to use it, you need to give yourself a strategy. A strategy is made up of goals, times to achieving them and ways of operating. But a strategy is not forever. Indeed, it is made to be improved and adapted to changes in the market, one’s own abilities and attitudes. Over time, for example, it may be decided to change the type of operation, moving from a short-term perspective to a longer-term perspective. Once you have decided on the approach, you have to put it into practice. Also because you can only earn from practice. And only in practice can one prove the technique and oneself.

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Too early for a broad dollar downtrend Markets have been offloading dollar positions after the weaker-than-expected US core inflation read yesterday, and as China further eased Covid-19 restrictions. Still, analysts at ING think it’s premature for a sustained dollar downtrend, as a Fed pivot is not a given yet and risk assets continue to face a variety of headwinds Analysts remain moderately bullish on USD Yesterday’s US CPI read dealt a big blow to the dollar. Decelerating core inflation – at 0.3% month-on-month – surely represents an opportunity for the Federal Reserve to deliver a more convincing dovish pivot and soften its tone on the length/size of the tightening cycle. This is being reflected in the Fed Funds futures curve, which is now expecting only 50bp in December and a peak rate of 4.95% in 2023: a 30bp correction since last week. “We can now expect a period of elevated market sensitivity to Fed-speak, as investors will attempt to gauge which members have been convinced to press the breaks on tightening from the latest inflation figures,” ING’s analyst Francesco Pesole said. In a market that was still quite extensively long, the dollar is seeing some sizeable position rebalancing. The oversold JPY and GBP were the best performers yesterday, while gains were more contained in EUR and CAD. Overnight, risk sentiment received an extra dose of support from the news that China is easing Covid-19 quarantine and flight restrictions. The renminbi is trading below 7.10 for the first time since September. Experts still reluctant to jump in on the broader bearish dollar story just yet “First, because it simply appears too early to call victory in the inflation battle, and more evidence will need to come from the jobs markets – which has remained exceptionally tight. There may not be much interest from the Fed to switch to a more dovish stance without having gathered all possible data before the December meeting,” Pesole added. Second, there is still a lack of alternatives to the dollar at the moment. European currencies are benefitting from lower gas prices, but that has been due to mild weather, and concerns about the energy crisis for this and next winter are unlikely to abate over the next few months. In China, markets are welcoming looser Covid rules, but infection numbers are elevated and vaccination rates are low, which means that the path to complete removal of restrictions still looks long. Grim export numbers also pointed out how China’s strains are not only a domestic but also a global demand-related story. A heavy return to other EMFX currencies also appears premature given the worsening financial conditions and slowing global demand. Third, risk assets are facing downside risks that go beyond the Fed story: from likely contracting corporate profits to housing market woes and, recently, the turmoil in the crypto market. Being long on USD looks reasonable “If nothing else, retaining defensive long dollar positions on the back of the incoming global recession and potentially more instability in risk sentiment would still look quite reasonable at this stage. In other words, the dollar peak might be past us, but a dollar downtrend may not be there yet. We remain moderately bullish on the dollar into year-end,” the analysts pointed out. Today, the US bond market is closed for Veterans Day, while the stock market will operate as normal. Still, there could be some reduced trading volumes also in FX. The calendar includes the University of Michigan surveys (focus on the inflation expectation indices) and a speech by the Fed’s John Williams.

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Eurozone Q3 GDP was resilient but a recession is imminent National GDP data released for Q3 show that Eurozone activity has slowed markedly from what seen in the summer. However, data released so far were on aggregate a touch better than what Oxford Economics’ analysts had expected. French and Spanish GDP increased by 0.2% over the quarter, while German GDP was up 0.3%. This means that eurozone GDP, to be released on Monday alongside the Italian number, could end up a touch better than expected. Broadly flat or slightly positive over the quarter versus a small decline pencilled into our latest forecast. Analysts still forecast a recession will begin in Q4 With high-frequency data in negative territory, it is a matter of how deep the recession will be and not if there will be one. In October, the Economic Sentiment Indicator declined to its lowest level since end of 2020. This poor sentiment was echoed in other surveys, such as the flash PMIs released on Monday. The Eurozone’s composite PMI fell to 47.1 in October, which, excluding the worst months of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, was the lowest reading since April 2013. Weakness was particularly acute in manufacturing Weakness was particularly acute in manufacturing with the manufacturing PMI falling 1.8pts to 46.6. Output in services fell as expected, standing at 48.2 in October from 48.8 in September. As high inflation dents real household incomes as higher operating costs force services firms to raise prices. This week we also received the results of the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey for Q4. In light of higher interest rates, a worsening economic outlook, and volatility in financial markets, banks reported strong tightening of lending standards, both for non-financial companies and households. The demand side of the equation was a bit more mixed, but was particularly worrying for the housing market. While average loan demand for companies was reported to have increased over the quarter, loan demand to households dropped. The situation looked particularly bad in Germany, with more than two-thirds of banks reported falling net demand for loans (down from just 4% in the previous quarter). The falls in other major Eurozone economies were notable as well.

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There has been a loose discussion in the market about the prospect of GBP/USD hitting parity for some months. This risk has firmed up in the wake of Friday’s tax giveaways from UK Chancellor Kwarteng, with both market pricing and some forecasters’ predictions now suggesting a tangible risk of GBP falling below 1.00. Is GBP/USD really reaching the parity? Of course, broad-based USD strength is an important element behind the softness of cable. In analysts’ view, there will be no let-up in USD dominance for some months to come. The greenback continues to benefit from the hawkish position of the USD. Additionally, amid concerns about the pace of global growth, higher Fed rates have only served to underpin the safe haven attraction of the USD. Irrespective of the position of the USD, however, there is no escaping the fact that GBP is being pummelled as a result of investors’ dissatisfaction with UK fundamentals. On a 5 day view, the pound is the worst performing G10 currency by a wide margin and has recorded a net fall of over 5% vs. the USD. Cable rebounded only a bit this morning GBP/USD has edged higher in early European hours this morning. Suggesting the extreme cheapening of UK assets over the past couple of sessions is attracting some interest. That said, the causes of the selloff in both gilts and in GBP have not been addressed and this suggests that the pound remains an extremely vulnerable currency. Political moves weigh on the cross Yesterday’s statements from both the Treasury and the BoE were clearly an attempt to sooth market turmoil. The Bank’s warning that it will not hesitate to raise interest rates by as much as is needed to return inflation to the 2% target, was not enough to prevent GBP dropping further initially. This disappointment reflects yesterday’s speculation that the Bank could hike rates immediately. Such action from the MPC, however, may have proved unwise. If the Bank had played its trump card on rates and GBP had continued to fall, the MPC could have found itself in a cat and mouse game with the markets that could have weighed heavily on its credibility. Instead the Bank will attempt to hold off until is scheduled meeting on November 3 before announcing another policy tightening. Speculation that it could delay a start to its QT programme to ease the indigestion in the gilts market is likely to prevail.

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Social trading is a relatively new way of online investing that allows interested users to access information via social networks. In contrast to fundamental analysis and technical analysis, with social trading the information is generated by other users, thus allowing newcomers to the industry to trade without necessarily having to go through the analysis phase. In essence, investment decisions are made on the basis of processes carried out by other traders, who are often more experienced and better able to interpret what is happening in the industry and the market.

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Unlike stocks or commodities, foreign exchange transactions do not take place on an exchange; in fact, currencies are traded directly between two parties in what is called the over-the-counter (OTC) market. This means that the foreign exchange market operates through a global network of banks, distributed in four major trading centers in different locations: London, New York, Sydney and Tokyo. In addition, since there is no single center through which all operations must pass, it is possible to operate 24 hours a day.

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